Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

We’re talking the likes of Cause Of Causes, Tiger Roll, and Delta Work, all of them ’medalling’ in the Grand National subsequently. And all of them trained by Gordon Elliott (by proxy in one case), a man who trained a National winner before he’d trained a winner in his native Ireland. It’s pretty clumsy and there’s no getting away from that fact.

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They’re presented in race order, starting on Tuesday, Day 1… Sometimes you can spend a lot of time looking for something which, in the end, only tells you that there is probably nothing to be found. The Irish haven’t (quite) had it all their own way in the past five years at Cheltenham, and Britain’s top man – sometimes persisting in the wind – has been Nicky Henderson. Looking for correlation is difficult in what is, granted, a crowded table. And it is still more confusing when noting that comfortably Mullins’ poorest win strike rate (6.78% in 2019) produced his best ROI (+30.51%).

• He will again face the second horse from that Grade 1, Notebook, if both stand their ground at the weekend, and the fact that Notebook is circa 5/1 third choice for Dublin’s Festival Chase speaks of the paucity of opposition once more.
• That was even more commendable because it was her first start since May.
• Her main market rival that day fell at the last as Epatante was looming upsides, but she looked to have had him covered at that point.
• Fleur Au Fusil caught my eye with her recent Leopardstown victory, but she’ll require the hood to help settle her if she’s to get home, although the faster race tempo should also help.
• If you think that the odds might shift and change before the start of the race, you could consider opting for the starting price.
• The Festival Bumper is a good example of race trends evolving, and the trend is away from big-priced winners.
• With a versatile run style and the best form in the book, he has a very obvious chance to add to trainer Alan King’s two previous Arkle scores.
• The winner of that contest in 2022 went on to follow up in the Albert Bartlett, as The Nice Guy improved hugely for the rise in distance at Cheltenham.

About the BetSlip

Azzerti is a best price 12/1 at present, which looks a bit of value. Interesting cards at both Fakenham and Sandown this afternoon. We are going to look at two races from the latter where the going is on the heavy side of Soft. Last seen on the track when second at the Kempton Christmas meeting in another valuable handicap. Will prove to be a highly informative race for the future. Plaisir D’Amour runs from the Venetia Williams stable, who are in great form.

• We start with the Gold Cup, which has had more headlines recently for the non-runners rather than those taking part.
• The best of the home guard could be Jpr One, trained by Joe Tizzard.
• The first of nine handicaps and I’ll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief.
• That quality continues on Sunday with a good card at Carlisle containing two Listed races and we also have Huntingdon.
• While he has obviously got his work cut out reversing that form, it is easy to envisage him staying on when others have cried enough, into the minor places.
• We will also delve into why Get Your Tips Out is considered one of the best free tipster websites in the UK, highlighting our proven track record of success, the wide range of races covered and positive punter feedback.

Thunder Sparks

Paul Nicholls has enjoyed enjoyed a relative resurgence in the last two renewals courtesy of that hat-trick of Grade 1 scores. He comes to Cheltenham Festival 2021 in similar form to 2019. It is fair to say that nobody really knows what to expect of the Cullentra House yard, currently fronted by Denise Foster while Gordon Elliott serves out his suspension. What we do know is that flagbearers like Envoi Allen have been moved to other yards and that has to have a negative bearing on overall figures this time around.

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SPECIAL TIARA Bold front runner who capitalised on Douvan’s injury to win this race a year ago. Well beaten by Altior at Sandown later and he looks to have had his day in the sun. ALTIOR Grand chaser who seeks his third consecutive win at the festival.

Timeform

• He has blitzed the best of the Irish this season, and he did the same to the best of the British and Irish here last season over hurdles.
• She’s usually very consistent but never showed up at Yarmouth last time.
• He’s since won another five Supremes, each ridden by the stable jockey (Ruby four times, Paul Townend once).
• I had Behind The Wire in at 5/2, he won strongly at an SP of 7/2 from 4/1.
• ’4’ signifies an early front runner, ’3’ a prominent racer early, ’2’ a midfield runner, and ’1’ a hold up type.
• Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he’s generally safe across them.
• Tiger Roll’s 2019 Aintree heroics in partnership with Russell was the first time a horse had won back-to-back renewals since Red Rum in the 1970s.

Douvan has something to prove and has not been seen since sustaining a serious injury in this race a year ago. Min, who clocked a decent time at Leopardstown last time, could prove a bigger threat. You should also think about investigating some of the many free horse racing tips that float around online. These tipsters can provide a good way to identify opportunities, and to catch wind of likely strong performers before everyone else does. Of course, you need to be quick off the mark when you get your tips through, because the longer you wait, the worse your odds will get as more punters flock to back the tip.

All of Ireland will be screaming for Samcro – and there’s no Cheltenham thrill like it

• I napped him on the latter occasion, so am unlikely to forget it.
• Being late in the flat season, the race can be run on testing but it does usually drum up plenty of interest with good-sized fields.
• In that spirit, I’ll take the Brits to beat the Irish, primarily through Jpr One and Master Chewy.
• I think he’s very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go.
• On ratings she has a few pounds to find with some of these but her trainer is making optimistic noises (for whatever that is worth).
• REBEL’S ROMANCE, who is unbeaten in three starts in Europe, rates much the best option.

Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field. It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. The first of nine handicaps and I’ll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don’t run many – just three darts this year – and I’ll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly. There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d’Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races.

Other Principal races at Ayr racecourse

Back Doddiethegreat at 7/1 with as many places as you can find (six generally, Skybet eight but a point shorter as I write). Bound to be a nice bit of pace on, and should be fair to most run styles. More Willies out front than a Festival urinal, and one of them will Bolts Up Daily tow Ballyburn into the race if he doesn’t make his own running. Maintaining discipline and patience in your betting approach is essential for long-term success. Implementing prudent bankroll management strategies is crucial for sustaining long-term betting success.

RELATED TOPICS FOR Grand National

• By looking at the performance of the horses and their jockeys, we can try to guess how they might perform when the gates open.
• I’d rather take shorter when knowing the ground with him.
• True, he was well seen off by Marie’s Rock in the Relkeel, though that was over an extra half mile; and he was no match for State Man in the County a year ago.
• For example, the going at Cheltenham last week was Good and it was noticeable that connections did not want to risk some of their better class horses making seasonal returns and debuts on anything other than totally ideal jumping ground.
• We came over in the nice interchange period, and we need not have worried because she settled in brilliantly, and the proof was in the pudding today.
• FAMOUS CLERMONT is a tentative selection in a wide-open affair, following an effortless 18-length romp at Haydock.
• An Ayr maiden winner from six attempts as a juvenile, the Roger Varian-trained son of Profitable has taken a step forward on each of his four starts this season.

Nevertheless, that’s a reservation for now, even though the pre-eminence of the same age group in the Champion Hurdle market says a fair bit about the older generations in the two-mile division currently. That leaves a trio of British-trained hopes, the word ’hope’ used loosely. Shallwehaveonemore was beaten 26 lengths by Constitution Hill in the Tolworth but has improved a fair bit since. His best form is on decent ground so that’s a plus, and he may have been a little outpaced at Kempton last time when second in Grade 2 company. He could run quite well without challenging the podium places. If we look at market position data instead, clear favourites in Grade 1 races have just edged into profit, albeit by only £6.77 (ROI +3.6%); backing ALL runners in the top four in the betting would have yielded a profit of £55.24 (ROI +6.8%).

Ayr Gold Cup Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

Horses that raced outside Graded/Listed company have a poor record. The graph illustrates a clear upwards trajectory with the last four years averaging out at just under 20 per meeting (19.5 to be precise). Essentially this means that around 70% of all races in the past four years have had an Irish-trained favourite. Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4. My main focus will be looking at the data as a whole – market factors, last time out (LTO) factors, etc.

Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he’s generally safe across them. The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers. I really don’t like this race from a betting perspective. You have to make excuses for the horses at the top of the market where their price doesn’t allow for such latitude.

How to read the racecard

So far he’s been beaten in two maidens before getting off the mark in a third such race, and that doesn’t fit with this race. To help you make your selection, you can access more information by clicking on the horse’s name on both today’s and tomorrow’s racecards. This will cause the horse’s information to slide out with all the key details. Jockey and trainer are obviously crucial, along with age and weight.

• A feature of the handicap hurdles this year is the almost total dominance of the top end of the handicap by Irish runners.
• Geegeez Pace Maps, available for every race, assist considerably with the challenge.
• Strongly against A Plus Tard’s profile coming into the race.
• Next to that in brackets is the stall the horse has been drawn in, a crucial bit of information.
• TAMFANA can win a well-deserved Group 1 in the Sun Chariot Stakes.
• MITBAAHY didn’t get the breaks when edged out by Raasel at Sandown Park last time, and has sound prospects of gaining his revenge.
• Get great odds, more events to bet on from around the world, and the best enhanced odds and specials with PlayRight’s recommended horse racing betting websites.
• Back down to novice company he should go well but wearing headgear is a big no no in the Brown Advisory and I don’t like that Nicholls is reaching for the first time cheekpieces here.
• The Irish have won six to Great britain’s four in the past 10 years.

Northfields Handicap Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Irish Champions Weekend)

Last year, five of the six horses sent off at 5/4 or shorter were beaten. This year, we look set to have at least five runners priced in that same bracket. Mishaps aside, it is hard (for me, at least) to make credible cases to oppose any of the quintet.

The only one really fitting the bill from a price perspective is Tanganyika who is second reserve. He is quite interesting on his run behind subsequent Grade Kyrov and Golden Son in France. Now with Venetia Williams, Tanganyika was beaten eight and a half lengths in that Auteuil race. Kyrov is currently rated 75kg (165), Golden Son 71 (156) and Tanganyika’s mark in France is 61.5 (135). Here, he has just 121, a full stone below his French rating.

Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Wednesday, April 20

Since 2009, the total wagered on horses has been falling, as online and mobile bookies have led the charge with other sports. This coincides with the rise of mobile betting, and underlying trends in sports betting that have seen football and tennis gain more ground. When it comes to promotions for big race events, it’s always worth shopping around. These vary between different providers and often change from year to year, so it’s usually a good idea to do some homework on the available promotions and bonus terms ahead of the bigger racing events.

Interesting, almost like they found improvement for the atmosphere of the Festival… In his sole chase effort before the last day fall, Haut En Couleurs had easily accounted for Gentleman De Mee and Mt Leinster, the former hacking up twice since, most recently in Grade 3 company at odds of 1/5. It is worth noting that five-year-olds have failed to win since their allowance was removed, though some of the fancied ones (Allmankind, Saint Calvados) have been given, erm, interesting rides from the front.

Stars of sport

The horse is banks king Enda Bolger’s latest McManus project, and was revitalised by a first spin over ditches, wedges and all in the PP Hogan Memorial Chase – a key prep for this – last time. There he won in a field of 17 which contained plenty of dead wood; so, too, will Day 2’s Cross Country field. He was effective rather than eye-catching in winning but that was his first cross-country effort in public.

That said, plenty of owners and trainers are represented by multiple runners so they may send a ’hare’ forward to chase. He’s a very unsexy price but might still be value at around 1/3. I don’t really fancy Irish Point, who in my view would have been better placed in the Stayers’ Hurdle even if his owner does have Teahupoo for that.

The thrice-winner sample size is only 70 (all other samples across the table were in at least multiple hundreds and generally thousands). The percentages in isolation are irrelevant, especially when comparing different going descriptions. This is because less extreme going conditions tend to have bigger field sizes and, therefore, smaller win percentages.